Looking back at a crazy Tech win, ahead to a formidable challenge

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Georgia Tech’s win over Duke Saturday resists categorization. The Yellow Jackets collapsed in giving up a 28-7 halftime lead but also showed mettle in rallying for the game-winning drive and following it with their only three-and-out of the game.

Tech’s defense had moments where blitzes were impactful and the tackling was sound, but also plenty of others where the Jackets were chewed up by an offense that is among the weakest in the ACC.

Tech moved the ball as well as it ever has in coach Paul Johnson’s tenure, particularly considering the opponent’s familiarity and past success against his offense. However, two turnovers (one on special teams) and a failure to make a 4th-and-1 pushed the Jackets to the brink of what would have been a most crushing defeat.

But for one or two superior plays, Tech might have experienced defeat after taking a three-touchdown lead for the second time in the past 16 games. A year ago, the Jackets lost to North Carolina after gaining a 21-0 advantage. It set the school record for the largest lead surrendered in a defeat.

Instead, the Jackets and their faithful can celebrate one of the greatest games that a Tech quarterback has played, a truth confirmed by statistics but also by the impression made on those witnessing Justin Thomas at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

Consider this jarring turn. According to ESPN’s calculations, Tech held a 97.8 percent probability of winning at halftime before surrendering the lead. Midway through the fourth quarter, the Jackets’ win probability shrank to 17 percent when Thomas was sacked for a nine-yard loss on 1st-and-10 at the Tech 14-yard line with the Jackets down 35-31. But Thomas flipped the odds with his 46-yard scramble out of the end zone on the next play, lifting the Jacket toward victory.

Johnson’s opening statement following the game summarized the day well: “I was disappointed with the way we played in the second half. I think that we found a way to make enough plays to win.”

Atlanta, Ga. — Georgia Tech senior QB Justin Thomas (5) congratulates sophomore QB TaQuon Marshall (16) after their 38-35 win over Duke Saturday, October 29, 2016. SPECIAL/Daniel Varnado

Going into preparations for its game at No. 18 North Carolina, which had the fortune of having the week off to ready itself for the Jackets, Tech can take confidence in the rising efficiency of its offense.

The Jackets averaged 9.9 yards per play against Duke, a number that even the mighty 2014 Tech offense could not achieve in a game.

Defensively, the Jackets can build on their three takeaways, a deluge after procuring only six in the first seven games. But the shortcomings on third downs continue. Duke converted eight of 13 third downs, increasing Tech’s defensive third-down conversion rate to 50.9 percent, last in FBS. The Blue Devils averaged 7.7 yards per play, their highest rate against an FBS team in the past three years.

The Tar Heels, piloted by hyper-efficient quarterback Mitch Trubisky (No. 3 in FBS in completion percentage), would appear even more capable of exploiting the Jackets defensively. North Carolina may be a tick below Duke defensively. The forecast calls for a lot of points.

Tech would be aided by the return of B-back Dedrick Mills and linebacker P.J. Davis, whom Johnson said Saturday that he expected to return from injury.

Tech may have to ratchet up its willingness to take even more risks defensively. It didn’t work, for instance, when defensive coordinator Ted Roof called for a six-man pressure on quarterback Daniel Jones and placed all 11 defenders within seven yards of the line of scrimmage on a 2nd-and-8 in the second quarter. The blitz was picked up and the problem was compounded when safety Corey Griffin went for the pass breakup and came up short. With no one to offer deep help, tight end Daniel Helm scored an uncontested 23-yard touchdown.

It did work when the Jackets also rushed six defenders at Jones in a zone blitz on 3rd-and-10 in the third quarter. It freed linebacker Brant Mitchell to put a hit on Jones and affect his pass, which defensive back Lawrence Austin made a superlative play on to catch for an interception.

It would be Tech’s biggest win of the season. But finding a way to win will be even more difficult than this past week.

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